Ecological Applications

Spatial and spatiotemporal models are increasingly critical for understanding species distributions, tracking population change, and informing conservation decisions. As biological processes are influenced by increasing external pressures, including human disturbance or environmental change, accurate model predictions become essential for adaptive management. However, the reliability of spatial predictions depends on often-overlooked modelling choices, including the spatial resolution used to approximate underlying processes. Using long term monitoring data from a large-scale groundfish survey in the California Current ecosystem, we investigated how spatial model complexity affects the quality of ecological predictions and derived indices used for management. We fit spatial and spatiotemporal models of ocean temperature and fish biomass density for 27 commercially important species using varying levels of spatial resolution. We evaluated both in-sample and out-of-sample prediction, and effects on area-weighted biomass indices. Counter to common assumptions, increasing spatial approximation resolution did not universally improve predictions. Our case studies demonstrate that for many datasets, out-of-sample prediction quality peaked at intermediate spatial resolutions and declined at the finest scales. Through simulation testing, we found this pattern was strongest when spatial patterning had a small range and high spatial variance, and observation error was low. For most species, spatial resolution had a minimal effect on biomass trend estimates used in management, but for several commercially important rockfish species, resolution choices substantially affected both the scale and uncertainty of population indices. Our findings demonstrate that spatial model specification can substantially affect ecological inference, with direct implications for management and conservation planning. We provide practical guidance for ecologists on selecting appropriate spatial complexity through cross-validation. When out-of-sample prediction is a focus, appropriate approximation complexity should improve both parameter estimation accuracy and derived quantities.

O_LIChanges in habitat structure across species distributions may contribute to the generation and maintenance of range limits, but few studies have evaluated this by directly measuring habitat availability across relevant spatial scales. C_LIO_LIHere, we test the predictions that coarse-scale and patch-level habitat availability decline towards and beyond the northern range limit of Pacific coastal dune endemic Camissoniopsis cheiranthifolia. We used aerial imagery and geographic information system (GIS) tools to measure the coarse-scale availability of coastal dune habitat in California and Oregon. The availability of finer-scale habitat patches specifically suitable for C. cheiranthifolia was measured in a 2-generation field survey of > 4,200 5m x 5m plots randomly distributed across 1100 km of coastal dune habitat transcending the species northern range limit. At each plot, we estimated the proportion of area that contained suitable habitat as well as recorded occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia. As an alternative approach to visually estimating habitat suitability, we recorded plant community composition at each plot to predict beyond-range habitat suitability using a random forest model. C_LIO_LIContrary to our predictions, we found that coastal dune habitat, measured coarsely from aerial imagery, was more abundant and continuous towards and beyond the northern range limit. At the fine scale, however, the proportion of plots with suitable habitat (patch suitability) and the proportion of habitat within plots that was suitable (patch size) declined across the range limit. Moreover, patches were more isolated from one another and, in one survey year, less temporally stable towards and beyond the range limit. Finally, occupancy by C. cheiranthifolia was less likely in smaller, more isolated, and temporally unstable patches, providing mechanistic insight to the previously observed decline in occupancy towards the range limit. C_LIO_LISynthesis: Taken together, our results suggest that fine-scale habitat patch configuration changes in ways that likely impede patch colonization, thereby reducing occupancy and limiting the species northern distribution. Thus, consideration of geographic variation in patch and landscape structure, rather than only coarse-scale habitat availability, may be essential for understanding the processes that limit species ranges. C_LI

Guinea worm disease eradication efforts may benefit from environmental surveillance methods capable of detecting infected copepod intermediate hosts in aquatic habitats. We developed a three-dimensional, spatially explicit agent-based model to examine how ecological processes influence detection probability for a hypothetical water sampling method. The results show that surveillance sensitivity is shaped by the combined effects of larval diffusion, copepod density, and pond size, with interactions among these factors producing nonlinear relationships. Detection, in our model, was concentrated within a relatively restricted period after larvae matured to the infective stage and before dispersal and mortality reduced presence, indicating a limited spatiotemporal window for effective sampling. Surveillance performance peaked under intermediate dispersal regimes that generated sufficient spatial overlap between larvae and intermediate hosts, while both limited dispersal and excessive diffusion reduced detection by constraining encounters or diluting larval concentrations. Increasing habitat size reduced detection by diluting larval concentrations, but the magnitude of this effect depended on copepod density and dispersal dynamics, producing nonlinear and threshold responses rather than simple scaling with pond volume. Spatial and temporal patterns of detection shifted as larvae dispersed, with the most favorable detection periods occurring when both larval abundance and intermediate host encounters were elevated. These findings indicate that surveillance can be guided by local ecological conditions. When the timing of larval introduction is uncertain, effective surveillance requires repeated sampling over time to capture transient windows of detectability and the sampling will be less effective in very stagnant and highly mixed waterbodies. Overall, this study demonstrates how mechanistic modeling can support the design and interpretation of environmental surveillance strategies for Guinea worm eradication programs. Author summaryGuinea worm disease is close to eradication but confirming that transmission has fully stopped remains difficult because detecting infectious larvae in water is challenging. Transmission depends on freshwater copepods that become infected after ingesting Guinea worm larvae. These copepods are short-lived and unevenly distributed within ponds, and infected individuals may die before larvae reach the infective stage. As a result, environmental detection is inherently uncertain. We developed a three-dimensional agent-based model to simulate larval dispersal, copepod infection, and water sampling in a pond environment. The model shows that detection is constrained to a brief period when mature larvae and copepods overlap in space and time, and that this window depends strongly on local ecological conditions such as larval dispersal, copepod density, and pond size. Because infected copepods can be present outside these narrow detection windows, negative water samples do not necessarily indicate absence of transmission, highlighting the need for repeated, spatially targeted surveillance during the final stages of eradication.

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are increasingly promoted as climate mitigation tools, yet guidance on their placement to maximize resilience against climate stressors like marine heatwaves remains limited. Here, we develop MPA placement guidelines that explicitly consider a mechanistic pathway through which MPAs could enhance kelp forest resilience to heatwaves: protecting fishery-targeted urchin predators to prevent kelp overgrazing. Using a spatially explicit, tri-trophic model of California kelp forests, we evaluate alternative MPA configurations across a hypothetical coastline where half the habitat experiences an increased probability of experiencing heatwaves. We found that effective MPA placement depends on whether MPAs are being newly established or reconfigured within an existing network, and that among-patch connectivity and spillover played vital roles in the relative effectiveness of different MPA configurations. Changes in resilience occurred primarily at the patch scale, with trade-offs between increased within-MPA resilience and decreased resilience in some fished areas, resulting in minimal coastwide population effects. For example, for new MPAs, large single MPAs within heatwave-prone areas maximized within-MPA resilience gains, while multiple small MPAs in heatwave refugia best supported whole-coast resilience. When reconfiguring established networks, expanding existing MPAs in refugia areas was most effective. We also demonstrate the importance of considering MPA recovery timescales: for example, relocating old MPAs to heatwave refugia yielded minimal short-term benefits due to the loss of rebuilt, previously fished, predator biomass. Our findings demonstrate that climate-adaptive marine planning should explicitly consider the spatiotemporal implications of trophic cascades, connectivity, and transient population dynamics to support ecosystem resilience.

O_LIAlthough ecological research has long focused on the effects of temperature on population growth, arthropod pests are exposed to a wide variety of environmental factors that affect their performance, such as chemical pesticides targeted against them. Moreover, these environmental factors likely do not act in isolation. Identifying the extent to which abiotic factors interact to affect pest population dynamics can strengthen current and future pest management programs. C_LIO_LIHere, we investigated the extent to which temephos, a common pesticide applied to aquatic environments for mosquito control, influences the thermal performance of juvenile survival and development rate, as well as the intrinsic population growth rate, of the invasive mosquito pest, Aedes aegypti. We implemented a response surface experimental design to measure these traits across seven temperatures and five temephos concentrations and fit temperature- and insecticide-dependent performance curves to assess impacts on the overall performance and the thermal optimum, minimum, and maximum. C_LIO_LITemephos exposure profoundly altered the thermal performance of juvenile survival by reducing survival across all temperatures, shrinking the thermal breadth, and shifting the thermal optimum to warmer temperatures. Through this, temephos also altered the thermal performance of population growth primarily by reducing its thermal breadth. C_LIO_LISynthesis and applications: Our findings demonstrate that interactions between temperature and insecticide exposure can fundamentally reshape pest population dynamics, rather than acting as independent stressors. By quantifying this interaction, we showed that temphos is most effective below the pests thermal optimum, suggesting that larvicides may yield the greatest population suppression in cooler regions or during cooler periods of the year. Incorporating such temperature-dependent efficacy into pest management strategies could improve the timing and spatial targeting of control efforts. More broadly, these results highlight the need to integrate anthropogenic stressors with climatic drivers when predicting pest risk and optimizing management under ongoing environmental change. C_LI

O_LIThe management of invasive species often emphasizes removals to manage populations. However, evaluating the success of this management technique remains challenging, especially at large scales. Understanding the relationship between removal intensity and population growth is essential for determining when management achieves desired outcomes. C_LIO_LIWe used management removal data (removal resources [e.g. trapping] and relative effort [trap nights]) to estimate population density, demographic structure, and growth rates of invasive wild pigs (Sus scrofax domesticus) across a large landscape. From the management data and population estimates, we inferred population trajectories in the absence of removals and quantified the proportion of the population removed by the most widely used methods to control wild pigs. We then compared observed removal intensities and population growth rates to predict expected population trajectories immediately after management occurs. C_LIO_LIResults suggest substantial spatial and temporal variation in wild pig growth rates and variation in the effectiveness of removal efforts. Additionally, removing wild pigs at higher densities had a greater effect on limiting population growth than removals conducted at lower densities, though both are important. However, on large properties, removal intensity was often insufficient to offset population growth, indicating that management effort does not scale to large areas. C_LIO_LIThese results demonstrate how removal data and population modeling can provide robust inference on population dynamics and management effectiveness, offering a scalable framework for evaluating and improving invasive species control programs. We also discuss the current limitation of how effort is defined for different large-mammal removal techniques, and offer potential solutions for a more complete definition, such as going beyond trap nights and including constraints on personnel, equipment, and logistics. C_LI

Urban pollinator gardens can provide refugia and support diverse populations of native bees amid threats from habitat destruction, pesticides, and potential ecological pressures from the introduced honey bee (Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1748)). The University of California, Berkeley, maintained a native bee garden at the Oxford Tract research facility to study the biodiversity, phenology, and foraging habits of urban bees from 2003 to 2009. That garden was decommissioned, and a new garden was re-established in 2019. Using diversity observations from the early 2000s garden and non-lethal sampling techniques, we characterized plant-pollinator interactions between flowers and urban bees in the newer bee garden with a bipartite interaction network. Across 12 flower species, we observed two non-native pollinators, the honey bee (A. mellifera) and the alfalfa leafcutter (Megachile rotundata (Fabricius, 1793)), along with at least ten native bee species across three families (Apidae, Halictidae, Megachilidae). We found that, despite the garden being created for native bees, honey bees accounted for 84% of all pollination interactions. The most abundant native bees were sweat bees (Family: Halictidae). Generalist interactions dominated the network, as both honey and sweat bees foraged on most available flowers. Honey bees showed a significant positive correlation with floral abundance, visiting flowers with the highest number of inflorescences, whereas native bees did not show this preference. These results indicate that native bee garden stewardship could benefit from greater floral diversity, while avoiding the dominance of any single species with high floral abundance, thereby reducing the likelihood of direct competition with honey bees.

Conservation biology increasingly relies on ecological forecasting, yet the biodiversity components most urgently targeted by conservation, such as rare species, local assemblages, and hotspot-defined communities, are often those whose dynamics are least predictable. Understanding how predictability varies across biodiversity is therefore essential for aligning management tools with their targets. This study tests whether predictability varies along three axes, how diversity is measured, the spatial scale of observation, and the temporal forecast horizon (which together govern the effective signal-to-noise ratio of ecological dynamics), and uses these patterns to inform conservation strategies. Using long-term monitoring data from seven estuaries along the Texas Gulf Coast, forecasting performance was evaluated for Hill diversity (q = 0, 1, 2) and population-level abundance of eight dominant taxa at local (bay) and regional (coastwide) scales across near-term (1-month) and long-term (12-month) horizons. Multiple time-series model classes were assessed within a rolling-origin cross-validation framework, with performance measured as improvement in root mean square error over a seasonal naive baseline. Forecasting performance increased consistently with Hill number order, reflecting reduced stochastic variation as dominant species are emphasized. The effects of spatial aggregation differed between systems. Aggregation generally improved performance for littoral assemblages but provided limited or no benefit for demersal assemblages, consistent with differences in how predictive signals are distributed across space. Forecast skill declined from 1-to 12-month horizons, with slower decay for dominance-weighted diversity and demersal assemblages than for rare-species-weighted richness and littoral assemblages. Environmental covariates provided limited near-term gains but became an increasingly important source of predictive information at longer horizons for a subset of demersal and crustacean targets. These results define a predictability landscape structured by diversity measurement, spatial scale, and forecast horizon. Three conservation domains, stochastic, transitional, and structured, emerge from this framework, each associated with distinct predictability regimes and management strategies. Aligning conservation approaches with the predictability properties of their targets provides a principled basis for determining when forecast-based management is informative and when precautionary approaches are more appropriate.

Humans are profoundly reshaping the natural world. These changes are giving rise to complex and mutually risky dynamics between people and large carnivores. In protected areas across North America, bears (Ursus sp.) face rapidly rising recreation pressures that can alter their use of the landscape, either displacing them from high-quality habitats or drawing them into human-wildlife conflicts through habituation or attraction to anthropogenic resources. However, disentangling responses to recreation from other drivers can be difficult because human activity covaries with environmental and seasonal processes that also shape bear activity. We leveraged the partial closure of the popular Berg Lake Trail in Mount Robson Park, British Columbia, Canada, to investigate whether black (Ursus americanus) and grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) showed fear, attraction or neutral behavioural responses to varying recreation levels across multiple spatiotemporal scales. To understand both anticipatory responses to predictable patterns of human activity, and reactive responses to hiker events, we used detections from 43 camera traps over two years (July 2023-June 2025). We compared weekly habitat use, daily activity patterns, and direct responses to hikers (using Avoidance-Attraction Ratios; AARs) among camera sites and between open and closed sections of the trail. Our results revealed that both bear species exhibited patterns consistent with fear responses, while some black bear behaviours were also consistent with attraction responses. Both kinds of responses reflect anticipatory strategies rather than reactionary behaviours (i.e., no AAR effect). Neither species avoided recreation spatially at the weekly scale: black bears were detected more at site-weeks with greater recreation intensity, while grizzly bears were consistently detected more at sites closer to hiking trails. However, both species used daily temporal partitioning to avoid direct encounters with humans. These findings demonstrate scope for human-bear coexistence when recreation levels are managed to be moderate and predictable, and bears have sufficient space to segregate from humans during peak times. Thus, successful coexistence will hinge on co-adaptation by both bears and people. Understanding how recreation influences bear behaviour, and the spatiotemporal scale at which that occurs, is critical for guiding effective adaptive management aimed at fostering human-bear coexistence in high-traffic protected areas.

Recovery debt (RD) quantifies the interim deficit of biodiversity and function during the recovery process after disturbance. Unlike typical recovery indices derived from data on experimental-control comparisons, RD further considers the target (reference) biodiversity level, modelling the rate at which it is approached over time. However, the application of the RD approach to active restoration has not been explicitly implemented to date. Here, we extend the RD framework to evaluate active ecological restoration in agricultural systems, defining the onset of recovery as the shift from intensive to wildlife-friendly management. We applied this approach to assess short-term pollinator recovery in 14 olive groves across a gradient of farming intensification and landscape complexity in southern Spain. Restoration actions included adopting low-intensity ground cover management and actively restoring field margins. At one, three, and five years post-restoration, we assessed community responses by quantifying bee abundance, species richness, plant-bee network properties, and flower visitation rates. Reference systems were defined by olive groves in complex landscapes with low-intensity herb cover management and organic farming practices. Following restoration, the RD of bee abundance decreased from 71% to 55%. We found no significant effects of pre-intervention agricultural management on RD. Instead, across sites, the reduction of the RD (i.e., recovery) of bee abundance, richness, network connectance and flower visitation rate was strongly mediated by the availability of high-quality semi-natural areas in the surrounding landscape and by the ecological contrast created by restoration interventions at both the farm and floral patch levels. RD for other network metrics showed no significant pattern of variation. Our study demonstrates that wildlife-friendly management and targeted habitat restoration can rapidly reduce recovery debt for bee abundance and function in permanent agroecosystems. However, the recovery of more complex interaction-network properties likely requires longer timescales.

Many benthic marine invertebrates disperse by releasing microscopic larvae carried by ocean currents to new sites, where they must settle into appropriate habitats and metamorphose to recruit. Species whose larvae settle in response to water-borne chemical cues live in topographically complex habitats. To study whether sinking in response to dissolved cues affects retention of larvae within complex habitats exposed to ambient water flow moving faster than larvae sink, we used the reef-dwelling sea slug, Phestilla sibogae, whose competent larvae stop swimming and sink in response to dissolved cue from their prey coral, Porites compressa. We conducted field experiments where dye-labelled water, neutrally buoyant particles, and larval mimics (particles that sank at the velocity of larvae of P. sibogae) were released together upstream of reefs of branching corals to determine if larval sinking in water above and within a reef affects larval retention within the reef. Wave-driven water flow measured above a reef in the field had instantaneous velocities peaking at 0.3 m s-1, driving slow net advection of water shoreward at [~]0.02 m s-1. Much slower wave-driven flow moved through the interstices within the reef. In this field flow, sinking by larval mimics caused their retention within a reef after dye-labelled water and neutrally buoyant particles had left. Such retention of sinking larvae within topographically complex benthic communities enhances successful recruitment by exposing larvae to high concentrations of cue for long periods, allowing them time to sink to surfaces, adhere, and undergo metamorphosis.

Wildlife crossing infrastructure is promoted to restore connectivity for fragmented populations, but its effectiveness at enabling natural recolonisation remains untested. We tested this using a spatially explicit agent-based model parameterised with GPS telemetry data from bobcats (Lynx rufus) in New Jersey, USA. By integrating movement behaviour, stochastic demography, habitat suitability, and traffic-dependent mortality risk, we simulated 50-year recolonisation dynamics across a highly urbanised landscape. Despite extensive unoccupied suitable habitat, natural recolonisation completely failed across all scenarios, with vehicle-induced mortality during dispersal acting as the primary limiting factor and turning the matrix into a demographic sink. Even an idealised mitigation scenario in which mortality at high-mortality crossings was reduced to zero failed to produce a self-sustaining population. Although dispersal increased, individuals at the recolonisation front remained too sparse to overcome the mate-finding Allee effect. Sensitivity analysis confirmed that the recolonisation-failure result is robust to {+/-}50% variation in per-crossing mortality and {+/-}25% variation in disperser survival. Restoring structural connectivity is not, in itself, a sufficient intervention for recovering low-density carnivore populations facing a high-mortality matrix. Instead disperser survival and local density at the recolonisation front are the rate-limiting determinants. In such systems translocation rather than crossing-structure investment is more likely to result in recolonisation success.

Habitat partitioning supports the coexistence of sympatric species and shapes their ecological roles across coastal seascapes. Understanding how sympatric species move through and use coastal habitats therefore provides fundamental ecological insight. Aerial drones provide new opportunities to monitor fine-scale movement and habitat utilisation of elasmobranchs in shallow waters. Here, we use drones to investigate fine-scale habitat partitioning and foraging behaviour among stingrays in a coastal lagoon in the central Red Sea. We conducted 30 aerial transect surveys (~17 ha each) and tracked 40 rays and 1 shark (total tracking time > 23 h). Using a double-observer protocol (manual + AI-assisted), 1,468 rays (6 species) and 4 sharks (2 species) were recorded from the transect surveys. Transect detections were dominated by bluespotted ribbontail rays (Taeniura lymma; n = 1,221) and larger-bodied whiprays (predominantly Himantura uarnak; n = 187). AI-assisted image analysis outperformed human analysts detecting 97% of these observations, compared to 76% for human analysts. We found pronounced habitat partitioning at sub-kilometre scales: bluespotted rays occupied the shallowest (< 0.4 m deep) lagoonal areas, away from open water, with foraging-related digging concentrated along the mangrove edge, identifying this zone as a key feeding ground and bioturbation hotspot. Whiprays predominated on macroalgal reef flat habitats and appeared to forage non-disruptively on epifaunal prey. Both taxa aggregated with conspecifics. Together, our results demonstrate that contrasting micro-habitat preferences and foraging strategies structure the spatial ecology of sympatric stingrays and highlight how drone-based monitoring coupled with AI can scale ecological inference in nearshore ecosystems. Graphical abstract O_FIG O_LINKSMALLFIG WIDTH=200 HEIGHT=108 SRC="FIGDIR/small/710512v1_ufig1.gif" ALT="Figure 1"> View larger version (63K): org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@1cefdd9org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@7bc807org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@895540org.highwire.dtl.DTLVardef@3c146b_HPS_FORMAT_FIGEXP M_FIG C_FIG

Wildlife vaccination could become a powerful strategy to mitigate disease-induced biodiversity losses, yet many vaccines for wildlife diseases provide only limited protection. Notably, tools to control the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) are urgently needed for amphibian conservation. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that prophylactic exposure to Bd metabolites increases host resistance, significantly reducing infection intensity in amphibians subsequently challenged with live Bd. Because Bd metabolites are non-infectious and applied topically, this treatment has potential to be administered to waterbodies to vaccinate and protect amphibians. We developed an agent-based model that indicated imperfect vaccination could reduce or amplify Bd infections at the population level, depending on degree of enhanced resistance or tolerance. Utilizing a Before-After-Control-Impact design with ten years of data, we conducted an ecosystem-level trial where we applied low levels of Bd metabolites or a sham control treatment to ponds in California and subsequently quantified Bd prevalence and infection intensity in metamorphosing Pacific chorus frogs (Pseudacris regilla). Unexpectedly, infection intensity was significantly greater in treated ponds relative to control ponds following metabolite addition. Additional model simulations indicated that this could occur via two mechanisms: (1) if treatment greatly increased tolerance alone or in combination with smaller increases in resistance, or (2) if a deleterious environmental interaction caused the treatment to increase susceptibility, rather than promote resistance. Future research is needed to determine whether tolerance or environmental factors drove heightened Bd infection intensities in this field trial to identify contexts in which this treatment can be used as a conservation tool. Significance statementAlthough wildlife vaccination is increasingly explored as a strategy to mitigate disease-induced population declines, many available vaccines provide limited protection, requiring careful consideration to design successful conservation campaigns. Here, we use both an eco-epidemiological model and field manipulation experiment to assess the effectiveness of an imperfect prophylactic treatment (akin to a prototype vaccine) for chytridiomycosis, a disease implicated in the massive decline of amphibian biodiversity worldwide. We unexpectedly found that prophylaxis-treated ponds had higher pathogen loads relative to control populations and models suggest this could result from enhanced tolerance or an adverse environmental interaction.

Large-scale annual releases of pheasants Phasianus colchicus and their subsequent management for recreational shooting create various ecological impacts in the UK. While effects at release sites are fairly well understood, dispersing birds may influence areas farther away. If they enter ecologically important but sensitive protected areas (PAs), any negative impacts could be especially harmful. Using tracking data, from 766 birds across 10 sites, we estimated survival and dispersal of released pheasants and applied these patterns to gamebird release records near English PAs to gauge intrusion risk. Of 2,885 registered release sites, just over half lay within 2 km of a PA. A large number of shoots release relatively few birds while a small number release many birds. Thus, numbers expected to enter a particular PA likely depend both on the size of releases and proximity to the PA. We estimate that, at a national level, a maximum of between 525,000 and 784,000 pheasants might be found within PAs very soon after release, representing around 1.7% of all the pheasants released annually. This number declines over the months after release until in February, we estimate that there are between 131,000 and 196,000 pheasants (0.4% of the total release) might be found within PAs. The critical metric by which ecological damage might occur is their density within PAs. Mean densities soon after release averaged 12.0 birds/ha in PAs within 250 m of release sites. This density declined markedly both in time (as birds died) and space (as they moved further from the pen as potential areas increased). By November, densities in PAs 500-1000m from release sites peaked at 0.5 birds/ha, falling to 0.16 birds/ha in February. These estimated densities are around two orders of magnitude lower than those known to cause strong, lasting impacts within release pens. The results are subject to assumptions about movement behaviour, game management and bias in registration. Despite these constraints, considerable local variation exists, with a minority of high-volume release sites very near PAs posing the greatest potential ecological risk.

IntroductionHuman land-use intensification and the resulting habitat loss are primary drivers of insect pollinator declines. Habitat restoration offers a promising approach to counteract these declines, yet landscape-level evaluations of bee responses to restoration and management remain limited. We conducted a two-year, landscape-scale study in Wisconsin, USA, to assess how different intensities of tallgrass prairie restoration and management affect bumble bees (Bombus spp.). ObjectivesThis study aimed to determine whether (1) bumble bee abundance and diversity increase with assisted restoration, and (2) outcomes differ between low-(seeded only) and moderate-intensity (seeded and managed with prescribed fire) interventions. MethodsUsing catch-and-release surveys, we measured bumble bee abundance and diversity at 32 sites representing a gradient in restoration intervention: no intervention (unassisted recovery), low intervention, and moderate intervention. ResultsBumble bee abundance and diversity were higher at assisted restoration sites (low and moderate intervention) than at unassisted sites. Although both tended to be greater at moderate than low intervention intensities, these differences were not statistically significant. Bumble bee community composition also differed across intervention intensity, driven by shifts in dominant species (e.g., B. impatiens and B. griseocollis). Rarer taxa, including endangered and vulnerable species, occurred only at assisted restoration sites, with the largest populations at moderate intervention sites. Across all sites, bumble bee responses were strongly and positively associated with floral abundance, but not with semi-natural habitat in the surrounding landscape. ConclusionOur findings demonstrate that assisted grassland restoration can effectively increase bumble bee abundance and diversity, supporting its value as a conservation practice for pollinators. Implications for Practice: (1) Grassland restorations targeting plant communities can successfully support nontarget pollinators across a range of management intensities and landscape contexts. Adding seeds of pollinator-preferred plants could improve restorations with low floral abundance and diversity. (2) Management of existing restorations is important to maintain abundant floral resources and diverse pollinator communities. Because sites varied widely in prescribed fire use, our findings likely represent a conservative estimate of its benefits, and higher intervention intensity (e.g., repeated seeding, regular fire, mechanical or chemical shrub and invasive plants control) may further enhance outcomes for bumble bees.

O_LIEctotherms in thermally variable environments mediate energy expenditure through both physiological and behavioural responses. However, many studies focus on constant temperature acclimation, and few consider behaviour and physiology in unison. It is unclear how acclimation to thermal variability affects locomotory choices, activity timing, and performance across daily thermal cycles. C_LIO_LIWe investigated the effects of thermal variability in the temperate dung beetle Onthophagus taurus. Following acclimation to a low amplitude (22{degrees}C {+/-} 2{degrees}C) or a high amplitude (22{degrees}C {+/-} 10{degrees}C) temperature regime, we measured behaviour and metabolic rate across temperatures. We hypothesised that O. taurus adjusts its locomotive strategy and search window when kept in high amplitude fluctuating temperatures to reduce energy loss associated with high temperature exposure. C_LIO_LIWe found that differences in energy expenditure were determined by propensity for flight which differed between acclimation treatments, particularly at intermediate temperatures. We also found that, following acclimation to a high amplitude of thermal variability, O. taurus exhibited a greater intensity of activity over a narrower window of time, and O. taurus acclimated to a low amplitude of thermal variability showed nocturnal activity. C_LIO_LIWe then used the data to model activity through the growing season over five years. Biophysical models were built using NicheMapR Microclimate and Ectotherm functions to test the length of potential searching time across seasons, the temperatures individuals are exposed, and locomotive strategy. Model outputs showed that acclimation to higher amplitudes of thermal variability increased accumulated degree-hours of activity relative to the low variability acclimation group. Individuals acclimated to higher amplitudes of thermal variability showed greater accumulated degree-hours in spring and fall, but exhibited shorter periods of activity during summer, with the model predicting increased opportunities for flight. Comparatively, O. taurus from the low variability acclimation treatment showed increased night activity in summer but did not fly. C_LI

Animal population control is widely used to mitigate conflicts between wildlife and agriculture worldwide. Structured, monitored removals are rare in South America, however, and their consequences for wildlife populations as well as their effectiveness in reducing crop damage are little understood. Using eight years of data from an experimental white-lipped peccary management program in an agricultural mosaic in the Brazilian Cerrado biome, we assess how structured, non-lethal removals affect both peccary demography and second-crop corn damage. Leslie removal models based on 6,619 captured individuals indicated that cumulative removals to approximately 85% of the initial population strongly reduced peccary abundance, with limited demographic compensation despite fluctuations in reproductive output. Corn crop damage, quantified with satellite imagery, declined over time and was correlated with peccary population size. Interannual variation in population growth and juvenile recruitment was poorly explained by climate, fire, or landscape composition. Source-sink dynamics likely play a role in maintaining healthy populations at the regional scale. Together, these results demonstrate that sustained and monitored ungulate removals can reliably reduce population size and agricultural damage, supporting coexistence between wildlife and food crop production in human-dominated tropical landscapes.

Nutrient availability, ecosystem productivity, and consumer assemblages are intricately linked through complex interactions and feedbacks. Nutrients influence the diversity and functional roles of consumers via shifts in resource quality and quantity, and consumers can alter ecosystem production and nutrient availability. However, our understanding of how characteristics of consumers respond to and influence concomitant shifts in nutrient availability and production is limited. We quantified the response of well-studied consumer assemblages (benthic invertebrates and zooplankton) to realistic nutrient loads that altered gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We fertilized 14 outdoor experimental ponds for 2 months and monitored total water column carbon (TC), nitrogen (TN), and phosphorus (TP), GPP, ER, and net ecosystem production (NEP) weekly. Then, we evaluated how fertilization and the variation in nutrients and metabolism caused by fertilization were related to shifts in consumer assemblages. Fertilization increased water column TN and TP and reduced TC:TP ratios, TN:TP ratios, and rates of GPP and ER. However, consumer assemblages were more tightly linked to variation in nutrient availability and production across ponds than to fertilization. Greater declines in benthic diversity occurred in ponds with higher average TN:TP ratios during the experiment. Consistent with predicted effects of cladocerans on nutrient availability, shifts in cladoceran abundances were positively associated with average water column TN:TP ratios during the experiment. Finally, elevated GPP and ER were associated with greater increases in the abundance of benthic invertebrate predators, suggesting the possibility of top-down control. Our study highlights the critical role of consumer-mediated processes in the interaction between nutrient availability and production. Manuscript HighlightsO_LIFertilization reduced pond gross primary production and ecosystem respiration rates. C_LIO_LIInvertebrate predator abundance was inversely related to gross primary production. C_LIO_LIShifts in consumer assemblages were tightly linked to nutrients and production. C_LI

Population density can influence individual predation risk in colonial breeders through shared vigilance and predator deterrence. We investigated how predator-prey interactions are shaped by population density at two Antarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus gazella) breeding colonies at Bird Island, South Georgia, which differ four-fold in seal density. By deploying autonomous time-lapse cameras, we captured high-resolution images at one-minute intervals throughout the breeding season. Using a YOLOv8 neural network, we identified fur seal adult males, females and pups, as well as three predator-scavenger bird species: giant petrels (Macronectes spp.), brown skuas (Stercorarius antarcticus) and snowy sheathbills (Chionis alba). Abundance patterns corresponded to the known foraging and breeding behaviours of these species. Differences in seal density between the colonies were mainly driven by adult females and their pups, but not adult males. The ratios of predatory birds to pups were markedly lower at the high-density colony, while scavenger to pup ratios remained similar. Spatial analyses revealed that predators were largely excluded from areas of high seal density, whereas scavengers overlapped extensively with pups in both colonies. This study demonstrates the value of remote observation in resolving predator-prey interactions and illustrates how density can shape predation risk in a colonial breeder.